February 21, 2000
Pre-thoughts to a leadership convention - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - The NDP Leadership Convention is now over, and I’m sure you’ve found out the results by now. This edition of The Commentary will give you my un-edited thoughts hours before the convention opened at Vancouver’s Pacific Coliseum. I did the following before I left for the opening of what was to be a historic weekend in British Columbian politics. Other thoughts will be posted in future editions...
It’s a bright somewhat hot February day. You’d think it’d be mid-March, but the calendar says it’s mid-February. February 18th to be exact, the day New Democrats from all over this province will gather at the Pacific Coliseum to crown a new leader, and for the rest of us a new Premier.
Ever since the campaign started (a long one I might add), I predicted Gordon Wilson would win the race. Not only has he the chutzpah to take on Gordon Campbell, but he’s also got the backing of Glen Clark and Moe Sihota amongst others. We cannot underestimate the power of those two, don’t also forget the backing of Dave Barrett and Harry Lali. They still hold a great deal of clout amongst some members of the party.
But, after careful examination of the delegate selection process and the delegates that Ujjal Dosanjh seemed to be winning one by one, It would be clear to say on this fair Friday that he’d be settling into a first ballot victory.
I think Dosanjh will win the first ballot. But, winning the first ballot without the simple majority will spell danger for him. If he can’t get that fifty percent plus one, which will force a second ballot, Dosanjh’s hopes for the premiership will be harder and harder to realise. Len Werden will drop out of the race, and probably endorse Gordon Wilson. Delegates who voted for Dosanjh will realise that this is an interesting development and seek other options, probably support for Gordon Wilson.
Another scenario worth watching for will be how much Gordon Wilson will fair on the first ballot. If he’s absolutely decimated with a weak and pathetic number and he’ll have no alternative but to drop out, who will he support? I probably think he’ll support Corky Evans, and if that happens, BC will have a Premier Corky by Monday morning. But, I doubt that will happen. The Wilson drop-out that is.
Corky Evans, should a second ballot be needed could also loose support. Delegates will realise that Dosanjh can’t obtain a majority of votes, then his chances at rallying the party to victory against Campbell’s Liberals are also slim. So then they’ll go to support Gordon Wilson. After that, all hell could break loose and I’m glad I’ll be there.
To summarise, Dosanjh will win only if he can win on a first ballot. If he can’t get a clear majority and a second ballot is needed, his chances are doomed and wait for Corky Evans or Gordon Wilson to win. Wilson’s chances are slimmer, though.
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