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Oscar predictions 2002 - THE COMMENTARY

By Joseph Planta

VANCOUVER -- This Sunday, the brand spanking new Kodak Theatre will bow its first Academy Awards ceremony. The telecast will originate at Oscar’s newest home, a multi-million dollar edifice erected by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

A new venue, brings forth a new award. The Academy will dole out its first Oscar for best animated film of the year. The three nominees are: Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius; Monster’s Inc.; and Shrek. Critics like Roger Ebert decried the Academy’s failed recognition of Waking Life, which seems like the dawning of a new era in animated pictures. The general consensus is that Shrek will win, giving Disney something to think about. In this the first year an animated film Oscar is given, Disney will have not won it.

Its nominations are pocket chockfull of technical nods. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings leads films with 13 nominations. Thus the Oscar trend is that the film with the most nominations wins best picture. It is not impossible as it’s already bagged the American Film Institute prize for best film of 2001, as well as the Golden Globe for best dramatic picture. However Ron Howard’s A Beautiful Mind is a favourite with its 8 nods. Usually the Oscar race is predicted by the winner of the Director’s Guild prize. See only a handful of times has the DGA winner not gone on to win best director, and then best picture. Ron Howard won the DGA this year and there is a significant amount of buzz for A Beautiful Mind.

Also in with 8 nominations is Moulin Rouge. The anachronistic Baz Luhrmann directed, Nicole Kidman starring picture is the first musical nominated in 22 years. (All That Jazz was nominated in 1979.) Actually it could be only 10 years if you consider Beauty and the Beast a musical. Rounding out the list are Gosford Park with 7 nods, and In The Bedroom with 5. Though great films, the best picture race is really between Lord of the Rings and A Beautiful Mind. Moulin Rouge is thrown in for good measure, but not according to Roger Ebert. In his Oscar prediction list, he’s said that A Beautiful Mind’s negative press of late, will hurt its chances, thus go on to split the vote with Rings. Moulin Rouge, Ebert says, will win. I don’t agree, though it is possible. My money will say that Lord of the Rings will win. A Beautiful Mind has suffered a smear campaign that’s gotten real ugly (John Nash himself appeared on 60 Minutes on Sunday to fight the bad press), and though not enough to stop its chances, Lord of the Rings has the numbers and will take the Oscar.

For best supporting actor, the nominees are: Jim Broadbent, Iris; Ethan Hawke, Training Day; Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast; Ian McKellen, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; and Jon Voight, Ali. The facts: Jim Broadbent won the Golden Globe, Ian McKellen hosted Saturday Night Live last week, as well as won the Screen Actors Guild award. Ethan Hawke is one of those nice late additions to the Oscar race, thus really has no chance to win (save Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock last year). Jon Voight won an Oscar 24 years ago, plus his Ali wasn’t much of a denter in the Oscar race. Ben Kingsley gave the performance of the year, but Ian McKellen is a Hollywood favourite. Kingsley already has one (he was Gandhi, 20 years ago), thus Sir Ian McKellen will win since he was overlooked 4 years ago for Gods and Monsters.

For best supporting actress, the nominees are: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind; Helen Mirren, Gosford Park; Maggie Smith, Gosford Park; Marisa Tomei, A Beautiful Mind; and Kate Winslet, Iris. Winslet last went to the Oscars for Titanic, she didn’t win then, nor will she this year. Iris was Dame Judi Dench’s picture. Helen Mirren won a Screen Actors Guild award for Gosford Park, but her chances are pretty slim for the Oscar. Dame Maggie, also from Gosford Park, already has an Oscar, so she probably won’t win this year. (Actually, for your worthless fact of the day, Dame Maggie is the only Oscar winner to win for playing an actress who loses an Oscar, as she did in California Suite -- actually the same year Jon Voight won for Coming Home 24 years ago.) Marisa Tomei’s won an Oscar too, she won for My Cousin Vinny nine years ago. Though a great performance, she won’t win, as Jennifer Connelly is the darling of the year. Connelly’s taken a Golden Globe, and will take an Oscar this Sunday.

On to best actress. The nominees happen to be: Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball; Judi Dench, Iris; Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge; Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom; and Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary. Sissy Spacek won the Golden Globe and was the odds on favourite up to this year’s SAG awards, where Halle Berry won. How about Nicole? Well, Nic’s had a hell of a year, but it’s hard to see her winning. However if there’d be an upset in this category it’d be her winning, more chance of that than Zellweger, that’s for sure. I’d love Sissy Spacek to win, since she’s already got an Oscar (Coal Miner’s Daughter in 1981). Plus Spacek’s performance is amply deserving according to the critics. My sentimental favourite is Dame Judi Dench, as she’s the finest actress on this list. But if the Oscars were about momentum, Halle Berry will win on Sunday. She’s got all the momentum behind her performance. Plus, could the Academy really pass up the chance of Berry being the first black to win the lead actress trophy? (I intend that both seriously, but also oddly enough, sarcastically.) My betting money will be on Berry, though Spacek could pull it off.

Best actor nominees are: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind; Sean Penn, I Am Sam; Will Smith, Ali; Denzel Washington, Training Day; and Tom Wilkinson, In The Bedroom. Wilkinson was in The Full Monty, and though deserving he will not win. Not his year. It’s neither Will Smith’s year, though his performance was great. Sean Penn, a real favourite with the Academy, though he has no time for them himself, won’t win either. I Am Sam was more sugary schlock, more than remarkable performance. Plus, he deserved to win for his last lead nomination, three years ago’s Sweet and Lowdown. Incidentally, his fellow nominees that year were Denzel Washington (who was up for The Hurricane) and Russell Crowe (for The Insider), they all lost to Kevin Spacey who won for American Beauty. The trio is back and this time Crowe and Washington are front and centre gunning for the award. Crowe’s won the Golden Globe and the SAG, and he did win the Oscar last year for Gladiator. Washington won the AFI prize, and the raves of critics, and I think he’s the real favourite to win. Especially in a year when three blacks are in the two top acting categories. My money’s on Crowe, but I think he’s turned off Hollywood with his violent outburst at the British Oscars earlier this month. Wouldn’t it be good for a black to win this award, some 39 years after the last and first time? Who won in 1963? Only Sidney Poitier, who returns on Sunday night to pick up an Honorary Oscar.

Whatever the case, this year’s show really has lots of suspense, in a lot of the major categories. Other predictions: well, Sting will join Bob Dylan, Phil Collins and Bruce Springsteen, in winning an Oscar for penning a song. The former Gordon Summner will take an Oscar to his Trudi for writing “Until” from Kate and Leopold.

Good Oscar Sunday to all.

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