Monday, January 27, 2003
The revenge of the secular voter - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER – I ran into my old friend Babak Khorram a week and a half ago, and being the observer he is of Middle Eastern affairs, he asked whom I'd favour in the upcoming elections in Israel. He said he'd favour Labour, but that's neither here nor there, since he isn't an Israeli national, nor like me, does he closely follow the political goings-on in Israel. Neither of us part of the Jewish diaspora, so whomever we'd personally tap or root for, it hardly matters a damn. Tuesday's election in Israel is interesting nonetheless.
Ariel Sharon, the incumbent Prime Minister has the odds against him, as no Israeli leader has won an election following an early call. You'll recall that Sharon called for this vote, when his governing coalition collapsed last fall. When Ehud Barak called for an early vote in 2001, he was trounced by Sharon. Then again, Bush 43 trumped all with his midterm wins last November. Perhaps for Sharon, the same kind of luck.
Unlike Barak, who was defeated by hawks who didn't like the large commitments he made to the Palestinians, this election is not really about the suicide bombings and continual unrest in Israel over the last couple of years. The author Shira Herzog, in The Globe and Mail last week suggested that this was the "ostrich election." Sure, terrorism and bloodshed plays a part in everything political in Israel, but this election seems centred on other things: a scandal surrounding the Prime Minister himself. It seems that there was some shady loan deal between either Sharon and/or his sons with a South African businessman. Something else dogging Sharon are the allegations bandied about that his Likud Party exchanged parliamentary nominations for favours.
This election, the troubles between the Palestinians notwithstanding, is also about religion. The Jewish faith is practically under siege from within, not only from without. The scandals have given Israelis much to be apathetic about. With Labour itself floundering (more on that later), there are two parties picking up support. The Shinui party, led by popular media personality Tommy Lipud, has been dubbed the possible kingmaker in the next parliament. Shinui, which means ‘change' in Hebrew, is proposing just that – immense change. The party has long championed greater secularism in Israel. Shinui is against the "clericalist, coercive and discriminatory policies of the militantly orthodox parties." Labour, no longer currying the support of secularists, are seeing their support go over to Shinui, thus almost ensuring a numbers win for Sharon and Likud come Tuesday. The Shas party, an ultra-orthodox sephardic party, has seen its support rise too. In fact, they're experiencing their greatest support ever, as the threat posed by Shinui is considered too great. There is a sense that if this election is turning into a battle between secularist and the orthodox, then why not support the parties at the forefront of that debate.
Labour has run a rather poor campaign. Their leader Amran Mitzna, a former mayor and general, has been criticised severely, and not just from the Likud government. His policies have been fiercely decried by individuals within his own party. The Labour campaign according to Ms. Herzog, has been weak. Labour still hasn't been able to get its act together since the death of Yitzhak Rabin. Since Rabin, Labour has had four leaders, thereby exemplifying the difficulty to provide policies in sync with one another, as well as the inability to provide the cohesive opposition any governing party needs. Likud, equally acrimonious within, has managed to run a disciplined campaign. Sharon faced a coup on his leadership fronted by his long-time rival Benjamin Netanyahu. Both Sharon and Netanyahu have managed to simmer their rivalry for the good of their party's unity, Netanyahu even taking a high profile post in the Sharon cabinet recently.
The trouble within the Labour Party has been rooted in the policies of the leader, Mitzna. He has been decried by hawks who disapprove with his promise that should he be the next prime minister, he'll unilaterally shut down the provocative Jewish settlements set up to aggravate the stability in the region. He's also vowed that the day after taking over office, he'd begin negotiations with the Palestinians. Clearly, something that most Israelis are unwilling to do irrespective of political allegiance. When I heard bestselling author David Frum speak last year on the eve of the first anniversary of September 11th, he made it clear the folly in pursuing dovish policies such as those espoused by Mitzna. Why would you negotiate with terrorists? Because they bomb one more Israeli installation, or kill one more Jew, they deserve one more acre of land?
Whatever the case, the election on Tuesday will prove interesting. We'll see, with the result, the direction Israel will take, in the on-going struggle for peace and stability in that oh so acrimonious region. The sidebar fights over religion and allegations of graft however, drown out the central political issue of the region today. And that is peace. The same thing happened in 1973. Whilst in the midst of a campaign that largely ignored Israel's rancourous relations with Egypt and Syria, the campaign was halted forthwith, when Egypt and Syria overran Israel's lines in the Golan Heights and Sinai peninsula. Shira Herzog warns that the way things are now at this campaign, we could see a repeat of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
- 30 -
Questions and comments may be sent to: editor@thecommentary.ca
An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .