Thursday, 10 June 2004
The Liberal victory squandered - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - One can get a good sense of the public's feelings on issues by looking at more than one poll, listening to the chatter on the open line radio programs, and other pundit's views, not to mention talking to others, though one ought to be careful sometimes. Have you seen some of the people out there?
Anyways, the point that I want to get through in this dispatch is that the signals point to the fact that the Liberal campaign is in trouble, feeling the pinch from a Conservative Party and Stephen Harper emboldened by the Liberals' own record of government. Stephen Harper's on the front cover of Maclean's this week, and though I don't consider that a reliable barometer, I think it's a legitimate idea that they float - Stephen Harper could become the next prime minister. It's a far cry from Maclean's hatchet job on Stockwell Day the last election, an ominous shot of Day and the headline: How Scary.
At this point, it's not a guarantee that Harper and the Conservatives will take victory at the June 28th vote. A majority is far fetched, and even a minority seems a stretch. A lot could happen in the next couple of weeks. The debates are next week and Harper could blow it, and Martin could resonate with the undecided.
It was a commonly held idea that Martin would sail to victory when he'd take the country to the polls after succeeding Jean Chrétien. Martin is more popular across the country than Chrétien, even in British Columbia. And in Quebec, he was far more well-liked than Chrétien, so a fourth straight majority for the Liberals seemed a guarantee. This campaign and with it the collateral damage from the sponsorship scandal and the inquiry surrounding it, have not sat well for Martin and his Liberals. Liberal infighting, from people who dislike Jean Lapierre and his bleatings, to Shelia Copps's acrimonious battle for a nomination (which she lost to Tony Valeri), to Chrétien loyalists getting shut out of the party they essentially cultivated to three majority victories, has not added to the party's fortunes. Diehard Liberals like Warren Kinsella, who was a key aide to Jean Chrétien, have actually put their money where their mouth is, as in Kinsella's case, he's donated to the Conservative candidate in his riding.
For all the people that Paul Martin has brought into the fold - from Keith Martin and Scott Brison from the Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties respectively, to Ujjal Dosanjh and Dave Haggard from the NDP - one does not think it was worth broadening the base with opportunists and turncoats, while breaking up what was the party as built by Chrétien and Trudeau loyalists.
Tuesday, brought another astonishing development with Senator Anne Cools, the first black female in the Canadian Senate, who was appointed by Pierre Trudeau, who left the Liberal Party not to sit as an independent, but to join the Conservatives because she liked Stephen Harper. Senator Cools, who always seemed to the left, surprised many when she said that she was disappointed that Paul Martin and his team haven't come through with the directional shift so promised when he was campaigning for the job. Save for her opposition to same sex marriage (or at the least Martin's direction on the subject,) Senator Cools seemed very much a Liberal in the Trudeau tradition. To go to the Conservatives, is amazing. Maybe with Senator Cools's endorsement, Stephen Harper is actually as good as the poll numbers indicate.
For the first time, an SES poll as reported by Pierre Bourque and his fine Bourque Newswatch, the Conservatives have come ahead with 37%, while the Liberals are at 33%. The NDP is at 15%, while the Bloc is holding steady with 10%, and the Greens with 5%. Liberals ought to worry, because coming ahead beyond the margin of error, means that a Conservative minority (never mind a Liberal minority), is very much a possibility.
Last night on Bourque was a blurb about the petty nastiness of the Liberals, as noted in an open letter written by a Liberal star candidate from Manitoba, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray. In his open letter, whose subject is rather irrelevant, he refers to Stephen Harper's party as the "Alliance-Conservatives." It is insane that the supposedly in control Liberals are resorting to such petty attacking. First, two Liberal cabinet ministers appear at a Conservative rally to heckle Stephen Harper, and then Paul Martin skips the Reagan funeral because it might win him four votes across the country, to not appear too cosy with the Americans. Give me a break. Paul Martin is unworthy to lead the country if this is how his campaign is run. Magnanimity is the order of the day, and Paul Martin and his handlers ought to know that. To refer to the Conservatives as the Alliance-Conservatives is so cheap, that it is unbecoming of the governing party. As Churchill advised when he was criticised for referring to the Japanese in diplomatic and flowery language: when you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite.
Late last night Bourque reports that a source tells him a new Liberal attack ad is set to air. Amongst the images: an aircraft carrier, troops in a dessert, a hand gun, a woman lying in a corner, and a burning Canadian flag. I'm in no position to give advice to the Martin team, nor would I want to because I think Stephen Harper deserves to get elected as has gotten the message on how to act like a leader, but if Martin wants to appear in the least prime ministerial, he ought to get rid of some of his advisers because attack advertisements with those kinds of images is utterly absurd. There's a lesson for the Liberals in the outpouring of memorialising over Ronald Reagan. In one of the speeches oft-repeated these last few days was Reagan at the 1992 Republican convention where he said: "And whatever else history may say about me when I'm gone, I hope it will record that I appealed to your best hopes, not your worst fears, to your confidence rather than your doubts."
This campaign of fear, as waged by Paul Martin may end up paying off in spades, but it doesn't instil any confidence in this voter, that Paul Martin and the Liberals are the choice to make come June 28th. Playing on the Canadian people's fears is inappropriate, because it is obvious that it's the Liberals who are the ones scared. They're scared that Stephen Harper may just win the election. And so he should.
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I mentioned the former Chrétien aide Warren Kinsella in the preceding column. I've read his book Kicking Ass in Canadian Politics (which perhaps the David Herle's should read if they want any tips on how to run a winning Liberal campaign), and I've always remembered him on his many appearances on television and elsewhere as a wag waxing punditry. One morning he infamously brought a Barney the dinosaur doll to the set of Canada AM, which essentially sealed Stockwell Day's fate in 2000, and he's remembered in these parts as a carpetbagger who tried to win in North Vancouver in 1997. Over the years he's become a good political commentator and I have a lot of time for his thoughts, whether in the paper, on television or on his blog at warrenkinsella.com. (It doesn't mean I agree with him, but I do enjoy what he has to say and the manner he says it.) Anyway, recently he made public the fact that his beloved father was ill, and admiringly recounted the heartache had by himself, and his family. In the rock 'em, sock 'em world of Canadian politics, it often gets too personal, and folks of opposing views rarely show each other the civility that's due. Kinsella's posts got me thinking that this game of politics really is a game and that sometimes, irrespective of party stripe, we're all mere people. So I wrote Warren a note not so long ago, telling him, as many others had already done, that he was in lots of people's thoughts. Word is now that Dr. T. Douglas Kinsella, C.M. is "very sick." Again, my thoughts are with Warren and his family.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .